Is Australia in a recession?

References

Data extracted 17 September 2026. Reviewed 2026-09-17 by Aard Data Team. Each numbered entry is the publication that documents the figures; the calls beneath it are the ones the retrieval actually made, recovered from the authoring session’s own transcript.

1. [1]Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product, June 2026
   Released 2026-09-02
   Vintage: Quarterly. Chain volume measures are not additive except in the reference year; current price values are. Revised with each quarterly and annual release and at each historical revision.
   Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product, June 2026. Licensed under CC BY 4.0.
   • The call this page made · extracted 16 September 2026
     ABS:ANA_AGG(1.0.0)https://data.api.abs.gov.au/rest/data/ABS,ANA_AGG,1.0.0/all?startPeriod=1990-Q1

     • -0.5 % · 1990-Q3 · Gross domestic product, chain volume measures, seasonally adjusted, percentage change from previous quarter, Australia, quarterlyM2.GPM.20.AUS.Q
     • -1.3 % · 1991-Q1 · Gross domestic product, chain volume measures, seasonally adjusted, percentage change from previous quarter, Australia, quarterlyM2.GPM.20.AUS.Q
     • -0.2 % · 1991-Q2 · Gross domestic product, chain volume measures, seasonally adjusted, percentage change from previous quarter, Australia, quarterlyM2.GPM.20.AUS.Q
     • -0.1 % · 1995-Q1 · Gross domestic product, chain volume measures, seasonally adjusted, percentage change from previous quarter, Australia, quarterlyM2.GPM.20.AUS.Q
     • -0.4 % · 2000-Q4 · Gross domestic product, chain volume measures, seasonally adjusted, percentage change from previous quarter, Australia, quarterlyM2.GPM.20.AUS.Q
     • -0.4 % · 2008-Q4 · Gross domestic product, chain volume measures, seasonally adjusted, percentage change from previous quarter, Australia, quarterlyM2.GPM.20.AUS.Q
     • -0.3 % · 2011-Q1 · Gross domestic product, chain volume measures, seasonally adjusted, percentage change from previous quarter, Australia, quarterlyM2.GPM.20.AUS.Q
     • -0.2 % · 2020-Q1 · Gross domestic product, chain volume measures, seasonally adjusted, percentage change from previous quarter, Australia, quarterlyM2.GPM.20.AUS.Q
     • -6.8 % · 2020-Q2 · Gross domestic product, chain volume measures, seasonally adjusted, percentage change from previous quarter, Australia, quarterlyM2.GPM.20.AUS.Q
     • -1.8 % · 2021-Q3 · Gross domestic product, chain volume measures, seasonally adjusted, percentage change from previous quarter, Australia, quarterlyM2.GPM.20.AUS.Q
     • 0 % · 2023-Q4 · Gross domestic product, chain volume measures, seasonally adjusted, percentage change from previous quarter, Australia, quarterlyM2.GPM.20.AUS.Q
     • 0.4 % · 2026-Q2 · Gross domestic product, chain volume measures, seasonally adjusted, percentage change from previous quarter, Australia, quarterlyM2.GPM.20.AUS.Q

     The ABS's OWN published quarterly percentage change, MEASURE=M2, rather than a change Aard derives from the M1 levels. Written after the 2026-09-16 audit found two things the derived route had cost. First, the page claimed nineteen consecutive quarters of GROWTH; the published series reports 2023-Q4 as 0.0 per cent, and the levels rise by $217 million in $668 billion, about 0.03 per cent. That is not a contraction and the page's real claim — no contraction since September 2021 — holds exactly, but nineteen rises is not what the ABS published and the page cannot substitute its own sign for the ABS's rounding. Second, the companion record abs-ana-5206-2026-q2-gdp-quarterly-growth-since-1990 annotates 1991-Q1 as −1.2 per cent; the published figure is −1.3, and the levels give −1.253. Evidence records are immutable, so this is a new record rather than an edit, and every claim about contraction on this page is repointed here. Ten quarters since March 1990 are negative, listed below, and only two pairs are consecutive — which is the whole two-quarter test. UNIT_MEASURE is PCT and UNIT_MULT is 0, so these are percentages as published, with no multiplier to apply. The call starts in March 1990 and cannot see the 1982-83 recession; the page does not claim to. Fetched from the same dataflow and the same June 2026 release on 2026-09-16.

   • The call this page made · extracted 15 September 2026
     ABS:ANA_AGG(1.0.0)https://data.api.abs.gov.au/rest/data/ABS,ANA_AGG,1.0.0/all?startPeriod=1990-Q1

     • 24,980 $ per person per quarter, 2023-24 prices · 2023-Q2 · GDP per capita, chain volume measures, seasonally adjustedM1.GPM_PCA.20.AUS.Q
     • 24,689 $ per person per quarter, 2023-24 prices · 2024-Q3 · GDP per capita, chain volume measures, seasonally adjustedM1.GPM_PCA.20.AUS.Q
     • 25,063 $ per person per quarter, 2023-24 prices · 2022-Q4 · GDP per capita, chain volume measures, seasonally adjustedM1.GPM_PCA.20.AUS.Q
     • 24,971 $ per person per quarter, 2023-24 prices · 2026-Q2 · GDP per capita, chain volume measures, seasonally adjustedM1.GPM_PCA.20.AUS.Q

     The quarter-on-quarter change in output per person, which is the page's point: the per-person series ran a longer losing streak than either recession the headline test found. Quarterly changes are calculated by Aard from these levels. Re-run verbatim on 2026-09-16 while migrating this page to evidence records; every value below reproduced exactly.

   • The call this page made · extracted 15 September 2026
     ABS:ANA_AGG(1.0.0)https://data.api.abs.gov.au/rest/data/ABS,ANA_AGG,1.0.0/all?startPeriod=1990-Q1

     • 19,409 $ per person per quarter, 2023-24 prices · 2026-Q2 · Real net national disposable income per capita, chain volume measures, seasonally adjusted, Australia, quarterlyM1.NNDI_PCA.20.AUS.Q
     • 20,246 $ per person per quarter, 2023-24 prices · 2022-Q2 · Real net national disposable income per capita, chain volume measures, seasonally adjusted, Australia, quarterlyM1.NNDI_PCA.20.AUS.Q

     Real net national disposable income per capita — what the economy's output is worth to Australians after the terms of trade, net foreign income and the capital consumed producing it. Re-run verbatim on 2026-09-16 while migrating this page to evidence records; every value below reproduced exactly.

   • The call this page made · extracted 17 September 2026
     ABS:ANA_AGG(1.0.0)https://data.api.abs.gov.au/rest/data/ABS,ANA_AGG,1.0.0/M2.GPM_PCA.20.AUS.Q

     • -1 % · 1982-Q3 · GDP per capita, chain volume measures, seasonally adjusted, percentage change from previous quarter, Australia, quarterlyM2.GPM_PCA.20.AUS.Q
     • -1.9 % · 1982-Q4 · GDP per capita, chain volume measures, seasonally adjusted, percentage change from previous quarter, Australia, quarterlyM2.GPM_PCA.20.AUS.Q
     • -1.3 % · 1983-Q1 · GDP per capita, chain volume measures, seasonally adjusted, percentage change from previous quarter, Australia, quarterlyM2.GPM_PCA.20.AUS.Q
     • -0.5 % · 1983-Q2 · GDP per capita, chain volume measures, seasonally adjusted, percentage change from previous quarter, Australia, quarterlyM2.GPM_PCA.20.AUS.Q
     • 0.2 % · 2022-Q4 · GDP per capita, chain volume measures, seasonally adjusted, percentage change from previous quarter, Australia, quarterlyM2.GPM_PCA.20.AUS.Q
     • 0 % · 2023-Q1 · GDP per capita, chain volume measures, seasonally adjusted, percentage change from previous quarter, Australia, quarterlyM2.GPM_PCA.20.AUS.Q
     • -0.3 % · 2023-Q2 · GDP per capita, chain volume measures, seasonally adjusted, percentage change from previous quarter, Australia, quarterlyM2.GPM_PCA.20.AUS.Q
     • -0.3 % · 2023-Q3 · GDP per capita, chain volume measures, seasonally adjusted, percentage change from previous quarter, Australia, quarterlyM2.GPM_PCA.20.AUS.Q
     • -0.5 % · 2023-Q4 · GDP per capita, chain volume measures, seasonally adjusted, percentage change from previous quarter, Australia, quarterlyM2.GPM_PCA.20.AUS.Q
     • -0.1 % · 2024-Q1 · GDP per capita, chain volume measures, seasonally adjusted, percentage change from previous quarter, Australia, quarterlyM2.GPM_PCA.20.AUS.Q
     • -0.2 % · 2024-Q2 · GDP per capita, chain volume measures, seasonally adjusted, percentage change from previous quarter, Australia, quarterlyM2.GPM_PCA.20.AUS.Q
     • -0.1 % · 2024-Q3 · GDP per capita, chain volume measures, seasonally adjusted, percentage change from previous quarter, Australia, quarterlyM2.GPM_PCA.20.AUS.Q
     • 0 % · 2026-Q2 · GDP per capita, chain volume measures, seasonally adjusted, percentage change from previous quarter, Australia, quarterlyM2.GPM_PCA.20.AUS.Q

     The ABS's OWN published quarterly percentage change in GDP per capita, over the whole series, fetched with NO startPeriod on 2026-09-17. It supersedes abs-ana-5206-2026-q2-gdp-per-capita-runs-since-1990 and corrects two things that record got wrong, both of them introduced by this branch's own earlier fixes. FIRST, the run is SIX, not seven. The published change for 2023-Q1 is 0.0 per cent. The levels fall from 25,063 to 25,052 — $11 in $25,063, or 0.044 per cent — and the superseded record counted that as the seventh fall. That is precisely the substitution the companion record abs-ana-5206-2026-q2-gdp-published-quarterly-change-since-1990 was written to stop for total GDP, where its note says the page 'cannot substitute its own sign for the ABS's rounding'. The same rule has to apply to the per-capita series on the same release, and it did not: one rule for GDP and the opposite for GDP per capita. The published run is 2023-Q2 to 2024-Q3, six quarters, which is also what the page's heading and its own bar chart already said. SECOND, the series does not begin in 1990. Every record on these pages queries ?startPeriod=1990-Q1, and the superseded record called the 2023-24 run 'the only run of three or more consecutive quarterly falls in the whole series' on that basis. Unbounded, M2.GPM_PCA returns 211 observations from 1973-Q4, and there are TWO runs of three or more: 1982-Q3 to 1983-Q2, four quarters, and 2023-Q2 to 2024-Q3, six. The 2023-24 run is the longest in the 53 years the series has been published — a stronger and more interesting claim than the false superlative it replaces, and the 1982-83 episode is the one prior case where output per person fell for longer than the two-quarter headline test would register. Runs and counts are calculated by Aard from these published changes; the ABS publishes no run lengths. Every value below reproduced exactly on 2026-09-17.

   • The call this page made · extracted 15 September 2026
     ABS:ANA_AGG(1.0.0)https://data.api.abs.gov.au/rest/data/ABS,ANA_AGG,1.0.0/all?startPeriod=1990-Q1

     • 104.7 index, 2023-24 = 100 · 2026-Q2 · Hours worked, index, seasonally adjusted, Australia, quarterlyM5.GPM_HRW.20.AUS.Q
     • 91.5 index, 2023-24 = 100 · 2019-Q4 · Hours worked, index, seasonally adjusted, Australia, quarterlyM5.GPM_HRW.20.AUS.Q
     • 102.3 index, 2023-24 = 100 · 2025-Q2 · Hours worked, index, seasonally adjusted, Australia, quarterlyM5.GPM_HRW.20.AUS.Q
     • 699,461 $ million per quarter, 2023-24 prices · 2026-Q2 · Gross domestic product, chain volume measures, seasonally adjusted, Australia, quarterlyM1.GPM.20.AUS.Q
     • 684,822 $ million per quarter, 2023-24 prices · 2025-Q2 · Gross domestic product, chain volume measures, seasonally adjusted, Australia, quarterlyM1.GPM.20.AUS.Q

     Hours worked, the denominator of the productivity measure, from the same call — and GDP beside it, so the comparison of the two growth rates needs no second record. Set beside the flat productivity index it is the page's argument: the extra output since 2019 came from more hours, not from more output per hour. Re-run verbatim on 2026-09-16 while migrating this page to evidence records; every value below reproduced exactly.

   • The call this page made · extracted 15 September 2026
     ABS:ANA_AGG(1.0.0)https://data.api.abs.gov.au/rest/data/ABS,ANA_AGG,1.0.0/all?startPeriod=1990-Q1

     • 99.7 index, 2023-24 = 100 · 2026-Q2 · GDP per hour worked, index, seasonally adjusted, Australia, quarterlyM5.GPM_PHW.20.AUS.Q
     • 99.9 index, 2023-24 = 100 · 2025-Q2 · GDP per hour worked, index, seasonally adjusted, Australia, quarterlyM5.GPM_PHW.20.AUS.Q
     • 99.8 index, 2023-24 = 100 · 2019-Q4 · GDP per hour worked, index, seasonally adjusted, Australia, quarterlyM5.GPM_PHW.20.AUS.Q
     • 102.2 index, 2023-24 = 100 · 2020-Q2 · GDP per hour worked, index, seasonally adjusted, Australia, quarterlyM5.GPM_PHW.20.AUS.Q

     The ABS publishes GDP per hour worked as an index, so no division is done here. Its base is this release's reference year, 2023-24 = 100. Re-run verbatim on 2026-09-16 while migrating this page to evidence records; every value below reproduced exactly.

   • The call this page made · extracted 15 September 2026
     ABS:ANA_AGG(1.0.0)https://data.api.abs.gov.au/rest/data/ABS,ANA_AGG,1.0.0/all?startPeriod=1990-Q1

     • 699,461 $ million per quarter, 2023-24 prices · 2026-Q2 · Gross domestic product, chain volume measures, seasonally adjusted, Australia, quarterlyM1.GPM.20.AUS.Q
     • 684,822 $ million per quarter, 2023-24 prices · 2025-Q2 · Gross domestic product, chain volume measures, seasonally adjusted, Australia, quarterlyM1.GPM.20.AUS.Q

     Total output, the same call and the same release as the per-person series beside it, so the two are on one basis. The population chart sets this against estimated resident population, which is a second dataflow and a second record. Re-run verbatim on 2026-09-16 while migrating this page to evidence records; every value below reproduced exactly.

Related questions

• How productive is the Australian economy?→
• How much do Australian households save?→